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While spring weather has been slow to appear, the spring real estate market is starting to heat up even though the flurry of sales is happening later than normal this year.
"Many years the spring market starts right after the Super Bowl, but this year it was held back by the weather, the economy, and, perhaps most of all, by the invasion of Iraq and the uncertainty that was created," said Mary Prochnow, broker/owner of Mary Prochnow Realtors in Los Altos.
Activity has definitely picked up within the past 10 days to two weeks, according to Prochnow. She believes the market will continue to pick up, with prices remaining relatively flat but with improvement in the number of sales.
"In some ways it seems as though there has been a hiatus that has also helped the sellers adjust to the realities of this market as compared to what we experienced three years ago. People tend to hear and remember somewhat selectively, and most people pick the highest sales they hear about in their neighborhood and hold onto that number in the hopes that this indicates the value of their own home. Time is helpful in changing this mindset."
Looking at statistics is one thing, but it's also important to take into consideration the comparable age and condition of the home in addition to the location in the neighborhood to get a true handle on the value. The economy is also a factor.
With the economic fundamentals pointing toward recovery, Judy Jarvis Ellis, a Realtor with Alain Pinel Realtors in Palo Alto and president of the Silicon Valley Association of Realtors, said, "This should shore up concerns about home prices, resulting in an even more robust real estate market."
Margot Lockwood of Coldwell Banker in Woodside said the spring market traditionally starts at least by the end of March, but due to the war this year it has been delayed at least a month. "I am seeing activity increase in all price ranges and have been selling high-end stuff, even $15,000,000," Lockwood said.
Early spring is usually the busiest time of the year for Realtors, said John Gieseker of Prudential California Realty, when "for sale" signs start to sprout up as the weather gets nicer and as the school year winds down.
"The spring market starts earlier than most people think. Much of this market is fueled by families with children and their concern to be settled into new schools before September. If someone needs to sell, find another home, and have it closed by August, they should start in May," Gieseker said.
Contrary to any negative news about the economy, Gieseker sees the housing market remaining strong. "Low return on savings and poor performance by the stock market is helping drive the investment into real estate. Interest rates will have the largest impact on the housing market. If the rates stay low the market will remain strong," he said.
Since buyers tend to control the market on both ends of the spectrum, Dale Klippel of Prudential California Realty believes the spring market starts around the first part of February and could extend until the end of August.
He predicts that some Realtors will have one of the hottest years ever but some will have an extremely slow, costly year. For Realtors representing the low-end buyers up to $500,000 or those who have a lot of listings within this same price range, it will be an extremely good year. For those handling clients between $500,000 and $1 million, the year should be rewarding, but in the million dollar plus range, Klippel sees a selling season that would most likely post end-of-year earnings far below that of the past four to five years.
"None of us are sole owners of that great big crystal ball; we can only guess at the outcome. My guess would be that we may well see the interest rates start to climb coming with the end of the war, since Uncle Sam has to find a way to pay for the war," Klippel said. "Washington could start a gradual climb upwards for the next six months, but I feel that would stave off all those really strong movers in the lower sector and almost bring the real estate sector to a standstill, thus causing the feds to once again start to drop the rates."
Klippel predicts there will be a lot of small peaks and valleys but nothing of any major proportion. "The real estate sector is about the only solid savior within our economy, and I'm sure the feds will be attempting to avoid a major recession."
For Sue Vaterlaus of RE/MAX Dolphin Real Estate, the future looks bright for the real estate market if the open house traffic is any measure.
"I think the spring market has definitely begun. There are more listings, but there are a huge number of buyers. I held an open house on Sunday and there were at least three groups of people inside at all times. Many of those people talked about putting their homes on the market because they are moving up to larger homes," Vaterlaus said.
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