"I was wrong, wrong, wrong," said Gerston, a Los Gatos resident. Not only did he call the Schwarzenegger announcement incorrectly, Gerston didn't think the recall would happen in the first place or that voters would dump former Governor Gray Davis so soon after they put him into office for a second term.

"It threw me for a loop, and that was part of the appeal of the whole thing," Gerston said about the recall. "How wrong can you be? I'm in this business. I was dead wrong and yet there was something very compelling about what everyone was doing. It was a runaway train."

But while Gerston couldn't predict how the recall would end, he and his longtime San José State colleague and collaborator, Terry Christensen, decided that they would document what was happening.

"As we saw the angst and dismay and the various components of this thing come together, it looked to us like, 'Oh my gosh, we really have an event that we have to capture.' So we did," he said.

As the recall unfolded throughout the summer and fall, Gerston and Christensen examined the circumstances that eventually helped a movie star assume the governor's seat. Their findings are detailed in Recall! California's Political Earthquake, out in bookstores now.

In their book, Gerston and Christensen place the recall in a broad context, taking a look at the political culture in California and the rules under which the state operates. Only 18 states have a recall provision, but California has one of the easiest requirements for enacting such an event, Gerston said. At the same time, California has one of the toughest requirements to pass a budget.

"So we make it almost impossible to balance a budget and easy to remove a governor for not passing that budget," Gerston said.

In particular, the two authors single out three factors in the months leading up to the recall drive that created the necessary conditions to oust Davis. Labeling the situation the "perfect storm," Gerston and Christensen argue that California voters blamed the former governor for the energy crisis, the nationwide recession and the budget deficit, and they were looking for change.

"Once we had the circumstances, we had people saying: 'Do we want to keep this guy, Mr. Blah?'" Gerston said about Davis. "And look at the opponent. He's outgoing, gregarious, over the top, vintage California."

Gerston and Christensen also look at the characters who would play central roles throughout the recall, such as the action hero Schwarzenegger and Democratic challenger Cruz Bustamante.

"California is a place that is extraordinarily personality-centered. Parties are weak in this state. Personalities sell in this state. You put together a personality like Gray Davis who really matched his name with a guy like Schwarzenegger who's like a light bulb," said Gerston.

Gerston doubts that a recall could happen again, either in California or elsewhere, since both the conditions and the characters involved were unique to the situation. He also doubts if Schwarzenegger will run for another term, because the governor's job is not as exciting as the movie-star lifestyle.

But as Gerston cautioned, his predictions have been wrong before.

Gerston and Christensen will be at Viva May 23 from 1:30 to 6 p.m. to sign copies of their book. Both authors will also host a discussion on the recall at 5 p.m. Viva is located at 15970 Los Gatos Blvd.