By Broderick Perkins
The "buy now" refrain is perhaps never more meaningful in Silicon Valley than it is at this time of year.
The housing market is taking a seasonal breather from quickly escalating prices, but less cooperative mortgage interest rates could cut into any expected savings.
"It's time for buyers to get out there. We are seeing some price reductions and that's a normal seasonal trend," says Janet Houde, president of the Santa Clara County Association of Realtors. "Most homes get sold between February and May every year, and in June you start to see some backing off and by July it is really apparent," said Houde, an independent real estate broker in San Jose.
After relentless monthly increases--one as high as $58,800 this spring--the median price of single-family homes set a new record at $642,000 in June. July's median is expected to reflect the traditional seasonal price-stabilizing trend with the median moving down 1.5 percent to about $630,000, according to an estimated projection from Richard Calhoun, broker/owner of San Josebased Creekside Realty and author of the Bay Area Real Estate Market Newsletter, a statistical compilation of area real estate statistics.
The temporary slowdown will give buyers some breathing room to scrutinize home prices. Next spring, however, expect more of the same price volatility.
"If you are knowledgeable, now is the time to buy, but sellers aren't knowledgeable. If you try to tell sellers the market is going down, they look at you kind of funny," said Calhoun.
Meanwhile, mortgage interest rates rose for the first time in five weeks, breaking the 6 percent barrier for the second time this year and taking away some of the affordability lower prices may offer.
Fixed interest rates had been falling from 6.32 percent on June 16 to 5.98 percent July 22, before turning up July 29 to 6.08 percent on 30-year conforming loans, according to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey.
The rise could be in anticipation of the next Federal Reserve rate hike on benchmark rates. Any increase in the federal rates will be designed to keep pace with the growing economy, said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac's chief economist.
Just don't bank on interest rates to reduce competition in the market. They've a way to go before buyers will throw up their hands.
"I came here in 1980. The interest rate was 16 percent. My first sale was with an 18 percent loan for a home worth $92,000. Now it's worth $700,000. Should they have not bought the home because the interest rate was too high?" asked Joe Brown, Coldwell Banker's managing broker for the Willow Glen and Meridian Avenue offices.
Barring a major quake or other widespread catastrophe, however, both interest rates and seasonal trends will combine to continue to make home prices less and less affordable for those who don't manage to buy now.
"Typically, sales are down in the month of July and August and pick up again after Labor Day. Through Thanksgiving they slow down again and after Super Bowl weekend, they pick up again," said Brown.
Google's planned initial public offering of stock may skew the seasonal trend as the suddenly millionaires dash to open-house tours of high-end homes, but the impact should be minimal during the current slow season.
"A lot of money won't be available for six months or so until they can exercise their options," said Houde.
To cash in on the housing market's expected lull this year, the experts say buyers should be sitting down with mortgage lenders or brokers, checking their credit reports and getting approved for a mortgage.
With relatively more buyers in the market than the inventory can support, sellers are more apt to accept bids from those with real money and who are ready to buy.
"Make an offer without a preapproval and you'll get thrown out. Study the neighborhood you think you'll like. Start learning more about real estate. If you are a first-time home buyer, learn about buyer programs. Study the inventory on mlslistings.com and get familiar with what's available for the loan you have," said Houde.
Brown says that despite talks about a housing-market bubble, higher prices remain inevitable because of a host of regional market conditions--low inventories, limited land, economic growth potential, population growth, diversity in both demographics and geography and, of course, a desirable climate.
"I'm sitting in the Safeway parking lot and it's 82 degrees, and in the state of Texas the A's baseball game is delayed because of a summer storm. This is what drives this market. People want to live here," said Brown.
Real estate writer Broderick Perkins, executive editor of San Jose-based DeadlineNews.Com, writes regularly for this newspaper.
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