Despite the destruction of an estimated 150 million birds, the avian virus (H5N1) is now considered endemic in many parts of Indonesia, Vietnam, in some parts of Cambodia, China, Thailand and possibly the Lao People's Democratic Republic. Most of these countries had never before experienced an outbreak of highly contagious avian influenza.

Russia recently reported its first H5N1 outbreak in poultry, followed by reports of the virus in adjacent parts of Kazakhstan in early August 2005. Almost simultaneously, Mongolia reported the detection of H5N1 in dead migratory birds. In October 2005, H5N1 was confirmed in poultry in Turkey and Romania.

On the other hand, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Malaysia have announced control of their poultry outbreaks and are now considered free of the disease. To date, laboratory-confirmed human cases have been reported in only four countries: Cambodia, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam.

What is less known are the outbreaks of avian flu found among poultry flocks in the U.S. The state of Texas reported an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N2) in poultry on one farm in south-central Texas in 2004. This was the first outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza in the United States in 20 years. This strain is not related to the Asian strain, and the health risk to humans from the H5N2 outbreak is considered low.

So what is the actual risk of a new and deadly form of human influenza causing an epidemic equal to or worse than that of 1918? For such a world-wide pandemic to occur, three events are necessary:

1) a new flu virus subtype must emerge;

2) the new virus must be capable of causing serious illness in humans;

3) the virus must be able to spread quickly and easily from human to human.

H5N1 has met the first two requirements, but so far it has only spread to humans from birds. The humans (more than 100) infected since 1997 have had serious illness with a 50 percent death rate. What is missing from this new virus is the capacity of human-to-human infection. However, should the H5N1 strain infect a human with the "normal" flu and exchange genetic material with that common strain, it would give H5N1 the ability to spread human-to-human as common flu does. In another possible scenario, the virus could "learn" to bind better to human cells and gradually mutate enough to rapidly infect human-to-human. The World Health Organization recently stated, "The risk that the H5N1 virus will acquire this ability [human-to-human transmission] will persist as long as opportunities for human infections occur. These opportunities, in turn, will persist as long as the virus continues to circulate in birds, and this situation could endure for some years to come." The destruction of sick birds is an effort to lessen this risk to humans.

To follow the latest information about avian flu go to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website at www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/index.htm. The local reference librarian can help locate this information for seniors without computers.

The CDC also advises that poultry is safe to consume using good hygienic practices and proper cooking, with no fear of acquiring infection with the H5N1 virus. Even in areas where outbreaks have been reported, poultry and poultry products can be safely eaten if all parts of the poultry are fully cooked (no "pink" parts) and that eggs, too, are properly cooked (no "runny" yolks). In addition, raw eggs should never be used in foods that will not be cooked. Also beware of the cross-contamination from juices of raw poultry products that touch or mix with food that will be eaten uncooked. Thoroughly wash hands and all preparation surfaces with soap and hot water before and after preparing any raw meat, fish or poultry.

Avian flu is not transmitted through cooked food. To date, no evidence indicates that anyone has become infected following the consumption of properly cooked poultry or poultry products, even when these foods were contaminated with the H5N1 virus.

For now, U.S. seniors should be more concerned about the greater likelihood of exposure to common flu during the holiday season. To track flu reports in your area, go to www.healthline.com for their flu locator map; Healthline also presents recent articles about flu symptoms and available treatments.

The greatest risk of exposure is at holiday buffets and potlucks. If you are frail, or a senior with immune or respiratory problems, or any chronic illness, you should stay away from crowded gatherings or avoid the food. Don't hug or kiss anyone who might have a cold or the flu or a winter "allergy." Avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth--these are easy entries for infection. Clean items at home that are handled often such as the phone, computer keyboard and mouse, door knobs and faucets. Wash your hands before you touch food. Stay home when you are ill; hope that others do the same.

Have a happy and healthy holiday!