January 11, 2006     Los Gatos, California Since 1881
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Optimism remains over home value appreciation
By Jean Newton
Although the debate continues about the status of the real estate market and whether it is slowing down, a new study shows that the majority of wealthy Americans remain optimistic that their homes will continue to appreciate in value.

The survey, conducted by The PNC Financial Services Group Inc., shows 65 percent of those surveyed said they expect to see double-digit increases in the value of their primary homes over the next five years, with nearly one-third (31 percent) anticipating an increase of 20 percent or more.

"Our findings indicate that many among the wealthy will not believe there is a real estate slowdown until they see it reflected in their property values, especially in regions of the country where prices have skyrocketed during the past five years," said Nicholas Buss, senior vice president and PNC's real estate economist.

"As an investment, real estate has been an increasingly dominant asset class over the past five years. The party may be over for those who have been 'flipping' houses and using real estate to get rich quick. But, in general, established wealthy Americans have not been speculative buyers and they remain solidly confident in the long-term value of their real estate holdings," he added.

The results released by PNC are the first in a series of reports resulting from a nationwide survey of nearly 1,500 wealthy individuals to identify attitudes about wealth among high net worth individuals, how it affects their lives and their needs in managing wealth. Other highlights of the real estate findings include:

Less than one in 10 (7 percent) wealthy Americans overall expects any decline in the value of their primary homes over the next five years.

Only about one in five (22 percent) wealthy Americans counts real estate as one of their principal sources of wealth. Those who do clearly recognize the importance of real estate to their financial health, with 39 percent of them saying a "major decline" in home values would be a threat or huge threat to their family's wealth. Residential real estate is far more likely to be listed as a source of wealth by those under age 65 (26 percent) or those with less than $1 million in liquid assets (30 percent).

There are significant regional differences in home price expectations. Floridians are the most bullish while New Yorkers and New Englanders are the most bearish. Californians are closer to national norms in their outlook.

The PNC survey found significant regional differences in real estate outlook. In general, those living in the southern and western parts of the United States were more likely to expect an increase in the value of their real estate than Northeasterners. More detailed findings include:

New Englanders had the most conservative expectations for ongoing rising home values, with one in 10 respondents expecting a 20 percent or more increase in home prices over the next five years and 18 percent expecting a decline. Nearly twice as many New Yorkers (19 percent) expect an increase of 20 percent or more, and an almost equal number (20 percent) expect a decline.

California respondents had higher expectations with approximately one-third (37 percent) expecting a 20 percent or more increase and only 8 percent expecting any decline.

When asked what changes, if any, the respondents would make if housing prices were to drop by 20 percent or more in the next two to four years, only one in five surveyed (22 percent) strongly or somewhat agreed that they would make lifestyle changes to reduce household expenses, while more than half (55 percent) report they would not delay major purchases to offset the decline.

These results, according to Buss, may have positive economic consequences.

"In recent years, rising housing prices have lifted consumer confidence and boosted consumer spending, but it does not appear that declining prices will dampen that confidence, at least among the affluent," he said.

In a nod to thrift, those with $500,000 to $999,000 were most likely to make lifestyle changes to reduce expenses if real estate values fell by 20 percent or more.

Of the 32 percent of wealthy Americans who own a second vacation home or condo, half say they purchased within the past five years. Nearly two-thirds (63 percent) note they purchased their second home simply for their ongoing personal use. Only 19 percent said they bought property as an investment.

Another one-quarter (24 percent) of survey respondents indicated they own real estate as residential rental property. New Englanders (43 percent) were much more likely to own a second/vacation home than the rest of the country (23 percent), with most second/vacation homes and condos owned for longer than five years.

Among those who said residential real estate is a major source of financial assets, rental properties were the most common form of ownership and timeshares, vacation condos and commercial real estate were less common.

The survey was conducted by Harris Interactive online among a nationwide cross section of 1,485 adults (age 18 or over) with annual incomes of $150,000 or above (if employed), at least $500,000 of investable assets (if employed) or at least $1 million of investable assets (if retired). Figures for age, sex, race, education, region, income, asset level and propensity to be online were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with the actual proportions in the population.

The PNC Financial Services Group Inc. is a financial services organizations providing consumer and business banking; specialized services for corporations and government entities, including corporate banking, real estate finance and asset-based lending; wealth management; asset management; and global fund services.

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